Geospatial Analysis of Breast Cancer in Alexandria: Application of a Novel Public Health Tool

Background: Geographic information system is a toolbox that can depict geography of
80% of health problems (epidemiology and outcome) and geography of healthcare
systems (screening, prevention, treatment/care services delivery), that can predict future
cases levels and trends and show areas with significant clustering of cases to target with
prevention and control. Objective: The objectives of the present study were to portray the
geographical distribution of breast cancer cases in Alexandria, identify the breast cancer
cluster areas in Alexandria, and to calculate the predicted number of breast cancer cases
until year 2020. Method: Breast cancer cases clinically and pathologically diagnosed and
confirmed in Alexandria University Hospital, Medical Research Institute and Ayadi
Almostakbal in Alexandria, over 10 years, between January 1, 2005 and December 31,
2014 and diagnosed and managed in the three enrolled data warehouse were obtained. A
digitalized map of Alexandria was used. The data of breast cancer prevalence was overlaid
and spatial analysis of prevalence by district and locality was generated using GIS
software. Results: Cancer breast cases through 2005-2014 in Alexandria were 6806 cases
of which 4534 cases were geocodable. Four Clusters of districts were found, and the
characteristics of each cluster was portrayed and mapped. Projection and prediction of
cancer breast revealed 704 cases in Alexandria in year 2020 with a consistent increase in
cases. Conclusion: Montaza district was the most significant cluster area.